The Next H-1B Lottery Opens in March 2027 — and Two Rule Changes Now Decide Your Odds

The H-1B door for this year is shut, and it will not reopen. USCIS confirmed on 17 July 2026 that it had received enough petitions to fill both the 65,000 regular cap and the extra 20,000 places reserved for holders of US advanced degrees, which means there will be no second lottery for FY 2027 — only the people picked in the March 2026 draw were ever able to file. Unselected registrations do not roll over, so a sponsoring employer has to register the same person again when the FY 2028 season opens in spring 2027.

That gives you roughly seven months. And they matter more than any seven months in the history of this visa, because the rules that decide who gets picked have just been rewritten twice — once by a regulation, once by a court.

Quick answer: The next H-1B lottery — the FY 2028 cap season — is expected to open in March 2027. Selection is no longer random: registrations now receive extra entries based on the job’s Department of Labor wage level. The $100,000 H-1B fee is currently blocked by court order and USCIS cannot collect it.

What actually happened in the FY 2027 season

The season ran on its usual calendar. Registration opened on 4 March and closed on 19 March 2026, USCIS announced the initial selection on 31 March, and the petition filing window ran from 1 April to 30 June. What was not usual was the size of the pool. USCIS reported 211,600 properly submitted registrations for FY 2027 — a fall of 38.5% from 343,981 the previous year — and said 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held US advanced degrees, up from 57% in FY 2026.

Read those two numbers together and the picture is clear. Far fewer people entered, and the ones who got through skewed sharply towards US master’s and PhD holders in better-paid roles. That is not an accident. It is exactly what the new selection rule was designed to do.

Cap-exempt work was never affected by any of this. USCIS continues to accept extensions, amendments, change-of-employer petitions for existing H-1B workers, and petitions from cap-exempt employers such as universities, non-profit research organisations and government research bodies.

The wage-weighted lottery, in plain English

DHS finalised the weighted selection rule with effect from 27 February 2026, in time for the FY 2027 season, saying it would raise the probability that H-1B visas go to higher-skilled and higher-paid workers while still leaving room for employers to hire at every wage level.

Here is the mechanic that matters. Every registration still goes into one pool, but registrations tied to higher wage levels are entered into that pool more times — a Level IV registration is entered four times, a Level III three times, and by the same logic Level II twice and Level I once. It is still a lottery. You just get more tickets.

How much difference does that make? The rulemaking projected that the weighted process would cut the selection probability for Level I registrations by roughly 48%, while raising the chances at Levels II, III and IV by about 3%, 55% and 107% respectively.

If you are a fresh graduate or an early-career developer, that first figure is the one to sit with. Your odds did not shrink slightly. They roughly halved.

The myth that will cost people a year: “I’ll just ask for more salary”

This is the single most common misunderstanding online right now, and it is wrong in an expensive way.

Wage levels come from the Department of Labor’s prevailing wage system and reflect seniority and job complexity within a specific occupation and a specific location — not simply how much a worker is paid — which is why many H-1B workers earning well above US averages still land in Level I or II. The weighting runs off the four-tier OEWS survey, which classifies jobs by SOC code, geographic area and level from I (entry level) to IV (fully competent), and the registration must state the highest OEWS level that the offered salary equals or exceeds for that SOC code and area.

Two practical consequences follow:

• Location changes everything. The same salary can be Level III in a low-cost metro and Level I in the Bay Area, because the OEWS thresholds are local.
• You cannot paper over it. Petitions filed after selection must match the registration on wage level, SOC code and area of intended employment, and USCIS can deny or revoke petitions that appear inconsistent. Compensation has to reflect a genuine, sustainable offer; what employers can legitimately do is re-check whether the role’s seniority, duties and classification were accurate in the first place.

There is one more trap worth knowing. Where several employers register the same person, DHS’s approach may place that beneficiary in the pool at the lowest wage level among those registrations — a deliberate check on people shopping for better odds through multiple filings. Ten employers registering you is not ten chances. Each unique beneficiary is entered only once under the beneficiary-centric system, and employers pay a $215 registration fee per beneficiary.

Where the $100,000 fee stands right now

This is the part that most directly affects readers applying from Pakistan, India, Nigeria or anywhere outside the United States — because the fee was aimed squarely at you.

Presidential Proclamation 10973, issued on 19 September 2025, required employers to pay $100,000 with H-1B petitions for people located outside the US. Twenty states led by California and Massachusetts sued, arguing the administration had exceeded its statutory authority and breached the Administrative Procedure Act, and on 8 June 2026 the District of Massachusetts agreed and vacated the policy in full. The government appealed, and the district court granted a short administrative pause of its own ruling while the First Circuit considered an emergency motion.

Then came the decisive order. On 24 July 2026 the First Circuit refused to reinstate the fee during the appeal, finding the government had not shown it was likely to win — the judges noted that Congress has historically been explicit when it authorises immigration fees, and the statutes relied on here contained no such language. The practical effect is that the June vacatur takes hold and USCIS should not assess the fee on covered petitions unless a higher court says otherwise.

Do not treat that as final. USCIS updated its guidance on 28 July 2026 to say DHS strongly disagrees with the order but will comply while it considers next steps — and its FAQ carries a blunt warning: “If this order is later lifted, DHS still plans to collect the payment.” Because a DC district court had earlier upheld the proclamation, the resulting split points towards the Supreme Court, and the government is expected to seek emergency relief there.

So the honest status for August 2026: not payable today, not resolved either. If you are negotiating with a US employer in the coming months, that uncertainty is a live item in the conversation, not a settled one.

What this means if you are applying from outside the US

Most H-1B coverage quietly assumes you are already in America on OPT. If you are not, three things change.

1. You have no bridge. A student inside the US can fall back on STEM OPT and try again. From Karachi or Lahore, a non-selection means the year is simply over — which makes getting the registration right the first time far more important.
2. You carry the fee risk. The blocked fee applied to petitions for beneficiaries abroad. If it returns, you are the category it lands on, and DHS has said it intends to collect retroactively if the block lifts.
3. Your wage level is decided by a market you cannot see. Ask your prospective employer directly which SOC code, work location and OEWS level they intend to register you at. That single question tells you more about your real chances than any online odds calculator.

Your seven-month plan before March 2027

• August–October 2026: Target roles, not just companies. Senior, specialist and hard-to-fill positions sit at higher wage levels by nature. A “Software Engineer II” title in a mid-cost city can outrank a glamorous entry-level offer in San Francisco on OEWS terms.
• November–December 2026: Get the sponsorship conversation into writing. Confirm the employer has an organisational account and has registered candidates before.
• January–February 2027: Ask the employer to review the SOC code, duties and worksite classification early. Preparation before the registration window opens is precisely what practitioners are advising unselected candidates to do.
• March 2027: Registration window. Anyone not selected this year can simply be registered again by a sponsoring employer when the FY 2028 season opens.
• Parallel track, all year: Keep a second country alive. Do not spend seven months on one lottery.

If H-1B is not realistic for you

Be honest with yourself about the maths. Level I candidates now face roughly half their previous odds in a pool of hundreds of thousands. Sensible alternatives:

• Cap-exempt US employers — universities, non-profit research institutes and government research bodies file outside the annual quota, year-round. Hospitals affiliated with universities are the most overlooked route here.
• O-1 or L-1 where you genuinely qualify — L-1 in particular suits people already working for a multinational with a US arm.
• Other countries with open, non-lottery skilled routes. Australia’s employer-sponsored stream, Germany’s job-search card, New Zealand’s trades pathway and Japan’s incoming replacement for its trainee programme all select on criteria you can actually influence, rather than on a draw.

Key Takeaways

• FY 2027 is closed and there is no second lottery; the next chance is the FY 2028 registration, expected March 2027.
• Selection is now weighted: Level I gets one entry, Level IV gets four.
• Level I odds fell around 48%; Level IV odds roughly doubled.
• Wage level depends on occupation and location, not on salary size alone — and it cannot be inflated after the fact.
• The $100,000 fee is blocked and uncollectable today, but DHS has said it will collect if the block is lifted.
• Registrations do not carry over. Everything restarts in March.

FAQ